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https://doi.org/10.31429/26190567-27-1-22-34How to Cite
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Copyright (c) 2026 Тищенко Р.Р.
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of France’s political-party landscape during Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term and the formation of a new configuration of power and electoral interactions on the eve of the 2027 presidential campaign. The aim of the study is to identify the key structural changes in the party system, determine the current balance of political forces, and develop realistic scenarios for the further evolution of the country’s domestic political situation. The methodological framework of the research is based on the structural-functional approach, which makes it possible to identify systemic dysfunctions within the institutional order; the pluralist theory of elites, which conceptualizes the political elite as a set of competing and heterogeneous groups; as well as content analysis and the historical-genetic method applied to the study of electoral dynamics and the evolution of party coalitions from the mid-twentieth century to the present. The scholarly significance of the study lies in refining contemporary trends in the development of the French party system and expanding the prognostic analytical toolkit for examining political turbulence in France as one of the leading powers of Western Europe. The findings demonstrate that the French party system has entered a phase of deep fragmentation, characterized by the weakening of the centrist core, the growth of personalist and protest-based forms of political mobilization, and the strengthening of both left-wing and right-wing radical segments. It is shown that Macronist centrism has lost its stabilizing function and has been transformed into an arbitral yet institutionally vulnerable mechanism incapable of effectively neutralizing the intensifying polarization. The interpretation of these results leads to the conclusion that there is a high probability of a systemic restructuring of France’s political field in the medium term, including the potential dismantling of the “sanitary cordon” surrounding right-wing radical forces.
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