Risk Factors in an Era of Uncertainty (New Crises and Their Cumulative Effects)

Abstract

The article presents the results of a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the current risks to the political, economic, and socio-­cultural reality. The author examines the set of factors that determine the content and form of emerging conflict divisions, noting that in existing and emerging social cleavages, identification demands, problems of recognition and respect occupy a prominent place. These issues elicit an active counter-­reaction from populist parties and movements. The intensity of the conflict is shaped by the multitude of interwoven cleavages which create a cumulative effect that makes it challenging to achieve consensus. The paper stresses that the internal conflicts of contemporary societies intensify the destabilizing effects of the global order. In the author’s opinion, the main explanatory framework of recent world history is the process of globalization, but the latter does not lend itself to an unambiguous interpretation, although it has resulted in the emergence of a multitude of economic, socio-­cultural, political and moral cleavages between those who have benefited and those who have lost. German scholars, who were the first to identify these diametrically opposed positions, conventionally labeled their bearers as “cosmopolitans” and “communitarians”. The new conflict lines have significantly different socio-­cultural features from those of the industrial revolution of the 18th‑19th centuries, in terms of socio-­economic factors. The set of new crises, representing a complex combination of objective and subjective dimensions of the crisis situation, intensifies the confrontation and becomes a serious challenge to democratic systems. The major objective of politics has been and remains the prevention of such crises or their timely reduction; strategically, it lies in articulating a vision of the common good and guiding society towards its realization.