UDC
323.26DOI
https://doi.org/10.31429/26190567-24-2-122-137How to Cite
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2023 Роман Васильевич Савенков, Андрей Игоревич Шушлебин
Abstract
The article focuses on exploring different patterns of conflicting interaction between actors in the political struggle. The main objective is to distinguish conceptually between the terms “public contestation”, “political protest”, and “coup” while exploring a possible correlation among these occurrences, utilizing easily accessible statistical information. The paper argues that the use of technological tools in current public policy by certain political systems hinders the implementation of traditional criteria for identifying a coup d’état. The significance of self-expression values and the population’s desire to participate in political decision-making has been reaffirmed, which becomes a contributing factor towards enhancing citizen participation in politics. Under such circumstances, a coup can no longer be seen as merely a tool for competing elite factions and may instead become public in the context of massive political action. The term “hybrid coup” has been used to refer to attempted coups d’état combined with protest actions. Empirical data has been analyzed to test whether there is a relationship between political protests and coup attempts. The analysis reveals a noteworthy correlation between these phenomena. Hybrid coups have a higher success rate than classical elitist coups. Protest mobilization is frequently incorporated into the technological arsenal of a contemporary coup d’état. In this scenario, mass political action by supporters of the regime increases its chances of survival in the face of a hybrid coup attempt. The political regime’s nature is a crucial determinant of coup vulnerability. Both authoritarian and hybrid regimes are susceptible to classic and hybrid coups.
Keywords
References
Bankovich, M. (2008). Gosudarstvennyy perevorot, putch, pronunsiamento: teoreticheskiy analiz [Coup d’etat, Putsch, Pronunciamento: Theoretical Analysis]. Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: istoriya, politologiya, sociologiya [Proceedings of the Voronezh State University. Series: History, Political Science, Sociology], 2, 3–12.
Bloom, J.M. (2014). Political Opportunity Structure, Contentious Social Movements, and State-Based Organizations: The Fight against Solidarity inside the Polish United Workers Party. Social Science History, 38, 359–388.
Clayton L., Powell J. (2019). Coup Research. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. Retrieved from https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-369
Conrad, R. (2011). Constrained Concessions: Beneficent Dictatorial Responses to the Domestic Political Opposition. International Studies Quarterly, 55(4), 1167–1187.
Dal’, R. (2010). Poliarkhiya: uchastiye i oppozitsiya [Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition]. Moskva: Izd. dom Gos. un-ta — Vysshey shkoly ekonomiki.
Fukuyama, F. (2019). Identichnost’: Stremlenie k priznaniyu i politika nepriyatiya [Identity: The Quest for Recognition and the Politics of Rejection]. Moskva: Al’pina Pablisher.
Glukhova, A.V. (2010). Politicheskiye konflikty: osnovaniya, tipologiya, dinamika (teoretiko-metodologicheskiy analiz) [Political Conflicts: Grounds, Typology, Dynamics (Theoretical and Methodological Analysis)]. Moskva: Knizhnyy dom “LIBROKOM”.
Goldstoun, D.A., Grinin, L.E., Korotaev, A.V. (2022). Volny revolyutsiy XXI stoletiya [Waves of Revolutions in the 21st Century]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya [Polis. Political Studies], 4, 108–119. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2022.04.09
Grinin, L.E., Grinin, A.L. (2020). Revolyutsii XX veka: teoreticheskiy i kolichestvennyy analiz [Waves of Revolutions of the XXI Century]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya [Polis. Political Studies], 5, 130–147. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2020.05.10
Hantington, S. (2003). Tret’ya volna. Demokratizaciya v konce 20-go veka [The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century]. Moskva: “Rossiyskaya politicheskaya entsiklopediya” (ROSSPEN).
Hantington, S. (2004). Politicheskij poryadok v menyayushchihsya obshchestvah [Political Order in Changing Societies]. Moskva: Progress-Traditsiya.
Inglhart, R. (2018). Kul’turnaya evolyuciya: kak izmenyayutsya chelovecheskie motivacii i kak eto menyaet mir [Cultural Evolution: People’s Motivations are Changing, and Reshaping the World]. Moskva: Mysl’.
Inglhart, R., Vel’cel’, K. (2011). Modernizaciya, kul’turnye izmeneniya i demokratiya: Posledovatel’nost’ chelovecheskogo razvitiya [Modernization, Cultural Change and Democracy: The Sequence of Human Development]. Moskva: Novoe izdatel’stvo.
Johnson, J., Thyne, C.L. (2018). Squeaky Wheels and Troop Loyalty: How Domestic Protests Influence Coups D’état, 1952–2005. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(3), 597–625. DOI: 10.1177/0022002716654742
Karpovich, O.G., Manoylo, A.V. (2017). Tsvetnye revolyutsii. Teoriya i praktika demontazha sovremennykh politicheskikh rezhimov [Color revolutions. Theory and Practice of Dismantling Modern Political Regimes]. Moskva: YuNITI-DANA: Zakon i pravo.
Kastel’s, M. (2020). Vlast’ kommunikacii [The Power of Communication]. Moskva: Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki.
Kharitonova, O.G. (2022). Tipologii politicheskikh rezhimov v bor’be za smysly arabskoy rezhimnoy dinamiki [Typologies of Political Regimes in the Struggle for Meanings Within Arab Regime Dynamics]. Yuzhno-rossijskij zhurnal social’nyh nauk [South-Russian Journal of Social Science], 23(3), 48–66. DOI: 10.31429/26190567-23-3-48-66
Koen, D., Arato, E. (2003). Grazhdanskoe obshchestvo i politicheskaya teoriya [Civil Society and Political Theory]. Moskva: Ves’ Mir.
Krevel’d, M. (2005). Transformaciya vojny [Transformation of War]. Moskva: Al’pina Biznes Buks.
Levitsky, S., Way, L. (2010). Competitive Authoritarianism. Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge University Press.
Levitsky, S., Way, L. (January 2020). The New Competitive Authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy, 31(1), 51–65.
Levitsky, S., Ziblatt, D. (2018). How Democracies Die. New York: Crown Publishing.
Linc, H. (1993). Krusheniye demokraticheskikh rezhimov. Krizis, razrusheniye i vosstanovleniye ravnovesiya [The Collapse of Democratic Regimes. Crisis, destruction and rebalancing]. Problemy Vostochnoy Yevropy [Problems of Eastern Europe], 39–40.
McAdam, D., Tarrow, S., Tilly, C. (2001). Dynamics of Contention. Cambridge University Press.
McFaul, M. (July 2005). Transitions from Postcommunism. Journal of Democracy, 16(3), 5–19. DOI: 10.1353/jod.2005.0049
Myunkler, G. (2018). Oskolki vojny: Evolyuciya nasiliya v XX–XXI vekah [Fragments of War: The Evolution of violence in the XX–XXI centuries]. Moskva: Kuchkovo pole.
Ochkina, A. (2016). Sotsial’nyy protest v sovremennoy Rossii: faktory i tendentsii razvitiya [Social Protest in Modern Russia: factors and Trends of Development]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: nauchno-prakticheskiy zhurnal [Economics and Management: Scientific and Practical Journal], 4, 69–75.
Patrushev, S.V. (Ed.). (2016). Massovaya politika: institucional’nye osnovaniya [Mass Politics: Institutional Foundations]. Moskva: Politicheskaya enciklopediya.
Perevozchikov, V. (2018). Anatomiya publichnogo perevorota: polittekhnicheskiy traktat [Anatomy of a Public Coup: A Polytechnic Treatise]. Moskva: Ekspertnaya gruppa “Pervyy Sovetnik”.
Pinker, S. (2021). Luchshee v nas. Pochemu nasiliya v mire stalo men’she [The Best in Us. Why There is Less Violence in the World]. Moskva: Al’pina non-fikshn.
Powell, J.M., Thyne, C.N. (2011). Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2009: A new dataset. Journal of peace Reseach, 42(2), 249–259. DOI: 10.1177/0022343310397436
Pozdnyakov, S.V. (2002). Politicheskiy protest [Political protest] (Candidate Dissertation). Rostov-na-Donu.
Rejbruk, D.V. (2013). Protiv vyborov [Against Elections]. Moskva: Ad Marginem Press.
Sabitov, M.R. (2013). Sovremennye determinanty massovoy protestnoy aktivnosti v Rossii [Modern Determinants of Mass Protest Activity in Russia] (Abstract of Candidateʼs Dissertation). Saratov.
Savenkov, R.V. (2021). Publichnoe osparivanie: ot diskursa k politicheskoy oppozitsii [Public Contestation: From Discourse to Political Opposition]. Voronezh: Izd-vo Voronezhskogo gosuniversiteta.
Sharp, G., Jenkins, B. (2015). The Anti-coup. Boston: The Albert Einstein Institution.
Shkel’, S. (2013). Postsovetskiy avtoritarizm v sravnitel’noy perspective [Post-Soviet Authoritarianism in a Comparative Perspective]. Ufa: Gilem, Bashk. entsikl.
Shul’man, E. (2018). Prakticheskaya politologiya. Posobie po kontaktu s real’nost’yu [Practical Political Science. A Guide to Contact with Reality]. Moskva: AST.
Sokolov, A.V. (2019). Kollektivnyye deystviya v sovremennoy Rossii: osobennosti organizatsii i reaktsiya vlasti [Characteristic Features of Collective Actions Movement in Modern Russia and the Authorities’ Reaction to Their Activity]. Yuzhno-Rossiyskiy zhurnal social’nyh nauk [South-Russian Journal of Social Sciences], 20(2), 45–59. DOI: 10.31429/26190567-20-2-45-59
Solov’ev, A.I. (2018). Gosudarstvo i obshchestvo: novyye grani istoricheskogo konflikta [State and Society: New Facets of Historical Conflict]. Yuzhno-Rossiyskiy zhurnal social’nyh nauk [South-Russian Journal of Social Sciences], 19(4), 6–24. DOI: 10.31429/26190567-19-4-6-24
Solov’ev, A.I. (2019). Prinyatie i ispolnenie gosudarstvennykh resheniy [Adoption and Execution of State Decisions]. Moskva: Izdatel’stvo Aspekt Press.
Solov’ev, A.I. (Ed.). (2018). Grazhdanskiy sektor gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [Civil Sector of Public Administration]. Moskva: ARGAMAK-MEDIA.
Tilli, Ch. (2008). Rezhimy i osparivanie [Regimes and Contention]. Logos, 6, 93–120.
Tilly, Ch. (2010). Bor’ba i demokratiya v Evrope, 1650–2000 [Contention and Democracy in Europe, 1650–2000]. Moskva: Izd. dom Gos. un-ta — Vysshey shkoly ekonomiki.
Tilly, Ch., Tarrow, S. (2015). Contentious Politics. Oxford University Press, Second Edition.
Tsvetkova, N.A. (2019). Diskurs “tsvetnykh revolyutsiy” [Discourse of “Color Revolutions”]. Postsovetskiye issledovaniya [Political Studies], 2(2), 940–950.
Vel’cel’, K. (2018). Rozhdenie svobody [The Birth of Freedom]. Moskva: AO “VCIOM”.